FOOD FOR THOUGHT

The latest Global Mining Outlook was released by Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research earlier this year, and offers a glance at how the gold mining industry is bouncing back from the challenges that the Covid-19 pandemic brought.

The commentary by the global economic forecaster shows that this year will see global gold mine production grow significantly, following disruptions that were brought on by the pandemic in 2020, and this trend is set to continue over the medium term until 2026, as the growth in global mine production remains strong, with high prices by historical standards encouraging investment and output in the sector.

In terms of the global overview of gold mine production, year-on-year growth is expected with regards to gold production volumes. In 2022, 3.2% growth is forecast, with that number set to rise to 4.3% in 2023, while year-on-year growth of 2.4% is expected in 2024.

Following a surge in gold mine production over the past decade, Mainland China will slip to the third spot in terms of global gold mine production by 2030, with a small growth percentage of 0.2% forecast for this year, after which production looks to remain stagnant. This is because of a variety of factors, including strict environmental regulations, falling ore grades, and the closure of smaller mines.

The situation in Russia seems even direr, as the country’s war with Ukraine is expected to severely affect gold mine production growth. 0% year-on-year growth is expected through 2031. Diplomatic issues, sanctions, and other factors surrounding the current conflict are all at play. In contrary to how the war is affecting the country’s output of gold on the global stage, the political value of this commodity has risen sharply in Russia itself, where buyers holding foreign currency are able to acquire gold, even if the country’s central bank is not allowed to trade with other central banks around the world using euros or US dollars.

In the US and Australia modest gold mine production growth is expected, with Australia expected to have 2.2% annual growth up to 2031, and the US set to see growth of 2% this year.

Locally, gold mine production is also showing a modest uptick following the losses the pandemic brought and last year’s exceptional 7% year-on-year growth, with 1% average growth expected in gold production annually until 2031.

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